Shipped tape archive capacity fell 9 % year‑on‑year in 2025 as enterprises archived less data, yet a substantial shipment uptick may lie ahead.
Figures from LTO Program Technology Provider Companies (TPCs) — HPE, IBM, and Quantum — show a sharp Q1 2026 increase of 57 % versus Q1 2025.
Quantum CEO Hugues Meyrath stated: “We are seeing unprecedented data growth alongside mounting cost, energy, and cyber‑resilience pressures industry‑wide. As organizations adapt to this new reality, tape is increasingly regarded as a strategic element of modern data infrastructure, delivering predictable economics and resilient long‑term data retention at scale.”
The LTO group formerly published tape‑capacity shipment charts using a 2.5:1 compression multiplier, which were discontinued after 2019. It has released annual EB shipment figures covering 2020‑2025, from which a comparable trend chart was built.
Looking at 2008‑2025 shipment trends, the 2018 dip originated from a patent dispute between tape‑media makers Fujifilm and Sony that limited global LTO‑8 supply until a cross‑licensing deal was reached. The 2020 drop was linked to the COVID‑19 pandemic.
Growth rebounded to 148 EB in the following year, followed by near‑flat results in 2022 and a modest 2023 rise. The 2024 jump to 176.5 EB represented 15.4 % growth, lifting optimism among tape system and software suppliers.
Still, expectations faded as 2025 shipped capacity slipped 9.2 % to 160.3 EB, possibly because buyers awaited new‑generation tape hardware. Even so, LTO noted 2025 volumes were the second‑highest on record, pointing to solid underlying tape demand. That said, 2024’s 176.5 EB peak could be an outlier rather than a sustainable trend.
The 57 % YoY Q1 2026 result renews optimism, fueled partly by LTO‑10 adoption and higher archiving requirements. Historical quarterly data spanning 2008‑2012 shows each quarter typically contributed 23‑27 % of annual shipments, averaging 25 %.
Using rough back‑of‑envelope math: if Q1 2025 made up 25 % of 160.3 EB annual volume, it equals 40.075 EB. A 57 % increase brings Q1 2026 to 62.92 EB. Extrapolating for four quarters gives an estimated 251.67 EB for full‑year 2026.
Should this projection materialize, 2026 will mark a watershed for the tape market, with positive outcomes for tape‑media producers, IBM’s tape‑drive business, and tape library plus software vendors.
Beijing Qianxing Jietong Technology Co., Ltd.
Sandy Yang/Global Strategy Director
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Email: yangyd@qianxingdata.com
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